Phreesia, Inc. logo PHR - Phreesia, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $12.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $12.14
UPSIDE: 10.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 155.1% above fair value
Current Price $10.94
Bear Case $4.23 61.3% downside ($4.23 - $10.94) / $10.94 = -61.3% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $4.29 60.8% downside ($4.29 - $10.94) / $10.94 = -60.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $4.63 57.7% downside ($4.63 - $10.94) / $10.94 = -57.7% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 31.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.0% vs our 3.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.29 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $12.14
Analyst Range $10.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $12.14 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions