PHR - Phreesia, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$12.14
DETAILS
HIGH:
$16.00
LOW:
$10.00
MEDIAN:
$12.00
CONSENSUS:
$12.14
UPSIDE:
10.97%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
85% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
3.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
31.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.0%
vs our 3.2% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.29 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$12.14
Analyst Range
$10.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.14 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions