Phreesia, Inc. logo PHR - Phreesia, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $13.57
UPSIDE: 26.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 82.9% above fair value
Current Price $10.72
Bear Case $5.52 48.5% downside ($5.52 - $10.72) / $10.72 = -48.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $5.86 45.3% downside ($5.86 - $10.72) / $10.72 = -45.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $6.43 40.0% downside ($6.43 - $10.72) / $10.72 = -40.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 40.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.3% vs our 3.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.57 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.86 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.57 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions