Phreesia, Inc. logo PHR - Phreesia, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $21.86
UPSIDE: 145.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.6% above fair value
Current Price $8.92
Bear Case $7.51 15.8% downside ($7.51 - $8.92) / $8.92 = -15.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $7.92 11.2% downside ($7.92 - $8.92) / $8.92 = -11.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $8.67 2.8% downside ($8.67 - $8.92) / $8.92 = -2.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 33.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.86 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.92 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.86 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions