PulteGroup, Inc. logo PHM - PulteGroup, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 19
HOLD 22
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $144.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $166.00
LOW: $116.00
MEDIAN: $147.00
CONSENSUS: $144.00
UPSIDE: 11.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.2% below fair value
Current Price $128.75
Bear Case $141.05 9.6% upside ($141.05 - $128.75) / $128.75 = 9.6% $11.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $181.88 41.3% upside ($181.88 - $128.75) / $128.75 = 41.3% $11.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $222.72 73.0% upside ($222.72 - $128.75) / $128.75 = 73.0% $11.12 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
11.12$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($11.12)

Implied Market Multiple 11.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $144.00 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.88 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $144.00 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing