PulteGroup, Inc. logo PHM - PulteGroup, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 20
HOLD 21
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $162.00
LOW: $115.00
MEDIAN: $145.00
CONSENSUS: $141.22
UPSIDE: 21.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.7% below fair value
Current Price $116.43
Bear Case $140.38 20.6% upside ($140.38 - $116.43) / $116.43 = 20.6% $11.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $181.03 55.5% upside ($181.03 - $116.43) / $116.43 = 55.5% $11.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $221.68 90.4% upside ($221.68 - $116.43) / $116.43 = 90.4% $11.12 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
11.12$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($11.12)

Implied Market Multiple 10.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.22 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.03 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $141.22 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing