PHINIA Inc. logo PHIN - PHINIA Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $81.00
MEDIAN: $93.00
CONSENSUS: $93.00
UPSIDE: 18.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.2% above fair value
Current Price $78.25
Bear Case $60.47 22.7% downside ($60.47 - $78.25) / $78.25 = -22.7% $3.95 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $69.10 11.7% downside ($69.10 - $78.25) / $78.25 = -11.7% $3.95 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $77.75 0.6% downside ($77.75 - $78.25) / $78.25 = -0.6% $3.95 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.95$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $93.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples