Pagaya Technologies Ltd. logo PGY - Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $32.50
CONSENSUS: $31.25
UPSIDE: 144.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 85.0% below fair value
Current Price $12.76
Bear Case $44.41 248.0% upside ($44.41 - $12.76) / $12.76 = 248.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $85.17 567.5% upside ($85.17 - $12.76) / $12.76 = 567.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $136.03 966.1% upside ($136.03 - $12.76) / $12.76 = 966.1% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 7.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.25 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.17 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $31.25 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 216% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions