Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation logo PGC - Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 7
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $54.50
CONSENSUS: $54.50
UPSIDE: 17.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.0% above fair value
Current Price $46.22
Bear Case $24.33 47.4% downside ($24.33 - $46.22) / $46.22 = -47.4% ROTCE 4.6% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $34.75 24.8% downside ($34.75 - $46.22) / $46.22 = -24.8% ROTCE 6.1% → 0.49x TBV
Bull Case $45.17 2.3% downside ($45.17 - $46.22) / $46.22 = -2.3% ROTCE 7.0% → 0.71x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

6.1%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.33x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.75 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (6.1%) is below the minimum investors require (8.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $54.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly