The Procter & Gamble Company logo PG - The Procter & Gamble Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $161.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $179.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $163.50
CONSENSUS: $161.88
UPSIDE: 12.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.5% above fair value
Current Price $144.44
Bear Case $112.72 22.0% downside ($112.72 - $144.44) / $144.44 = -22.0% $7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $136.87 5.2% downside ($136.87 - $144.44) / $144.44 = -5.2% $7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $161.03 11.5% upside ($161.03 - $144.44) / $144.44 = 11.5% $7.26 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
7.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.88 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.87 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples