The Procter & Gamble Company logo PG - The Procter & Gamble Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $159.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $172.00
LOW: $142.00
MEDIAN: $162.50
CONSENSUS: $159.00
UPSIDE: 8.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.2% above fair value
Current Price $147.04
Bear Case $111.89 23.9% downside ($111.89 - $147.04) / $147.04 = -23.9% $7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $135.87 7.6% downside ($135.87 - $147.04) / $147.04 = -7.6% $7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $159.84 8.7% upside ($159.84 - $147.04) / $147.04 = 8.7% $7.26 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
7.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $159.00 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $135.87 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples