Peoples Financial Services Corp. logo PFIS - Peoples Financial Services Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $56.00
DOWNSIDE: 21.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.2% below fair value
Current Price $71.39
Bear Case $64.89 9.1% downside ($64.89 - $71.39) / $71.39 = -9.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.56x TBV
Fair Value $99.50 39.4% upside ($99.50 - $71.39) / $71.39 = 39.4% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.39x TBV
Bull Case $120.26 68.5% upside ($120.26 - $71.39) / $71.39 = 68.5% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.89x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.72x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.39x on $41.57 tangible book, implying $99.50 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly