Peoples Financial Services Corp. logo PFIS - Peoples Financial Services Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $56.00
DOWNSIDE: 22.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.9% below fair value
Current Price $72.05
Bear Case $63.42 12.0% downside ($63.42 - $72.05) / $72.05 = -12.0% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.53x TBV
Fair Value $97.24 35.0% upside ($97.24 - $72.05) / $72.05 = 35.0% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.34x TBV
Bull Case $117.53 63.1% upside ($117.53 - $72.05) / $72.05 = 63.1% ROTCE 16.4% → 2.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.73x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.34x on $41.57 tangible book, implying $97.24 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly