Pfizer Inc. logo PFE - Pfizer Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 22
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.75
UPSIDE: 6.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.9% below fair value
Current Price $25.08
Bear Case $26.50 5.7% upside ($26.50 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 5.7% $2.34 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $30.92 23.3% upside ($30.92 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 23.3% $2.34 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $35.34 40.9% upside ($35.34 - $25.08) / $25.08 = 40.9% $2.34 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
2.34$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.75 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.92 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 72%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 126% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples