Pfizer Inc. logo PFE - Pfizer Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $31.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $28.50
CONSENSUS: $28.50
UPSIDE: 2.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.7% below fair value
Current Price $27.88
Bear Case $26.74 4.1% downside ($26.74 - $27.88) / $27.88 = -4.1% $2.23 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $31.20 11.9% upside ($31.20 - $27.88) / $27.88 = 11.9% $2.23 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $35.66 27.9% upside ($35.66 - $27.88) / $27.88 = 27.9% $2.23 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
2.23$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.23, the base-case value is $31.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.23.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (39 analysts) $28.50
Analyst Range $26.00 – $31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 64%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 126% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples