Preferred Bank logo PFBC - Preferred Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $110.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $110.00
UPSIDE: 6.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.9% below fair value
Current Price $103.52
Bear Case $178.17 72.1% upside ($178.17 - $103.52) / $103.52 = 72.1% ROTCE 12.7% → 2.67x TBV
Fair Value $264.88 155.9% upside ($264.88 - $103.52) / $103.52 = 155.9% ROTCE 16.9% → 3.97x TBV
Bull Case $266.67 157.6% upside ($266.67 - $103.52) / $103.52 = 157.6% ROTCE 19.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.55x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.9% vs. 7.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.97x on $66.67 tangible book, implying $264.88 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $110.00
Analyst Range $110.00 – $110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 141%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 141% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly