Preferred Bank logo PFBC - Preferred Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $111.00
LOW: $93.00
MEDIAN: $102.00
CONSENSUS: $102.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.1% below fair value
Current Price $106.04
Bear Case $155.54 46.7% upside ($155.54 - $106.04) / $106.04 = 46.7% ROTCE 12.7% → 2.66x TBV
Fair Value $231.23 118.1% upside ($231.23 - $106.04) / $106.04 = 118.1% ROTCE 16.9% → 3.95x TBV
Bull Case $233.98 120.7% upside ($233.98 - $106.04) / $106.04 = 120.7% ROTCE 19.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
7.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.59x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $231.23 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $102.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 158% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly