Preferred Bank logo PFBC - Preferred Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $115.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $115.00
CONSENSUS: $115.00
UPSIDE: 9.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 58.3% below fair value
Current Price $105.38
Bear Case $169.96 61.3% upside ($169.96 - $105.38) / $105.38 = 61.3% ROTCE 12.7% → 2.55x TBV
Fair Value $252.67 139.8% upside ($252.67 - $105.38) / $105.38 = 139.8% ROTCE 16.9% → 3.79x TBV
Bull Case $266.42 152.8% upside ($266.42 - $105.38) / $105.38 = 152.8% ROTCE 19.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
7.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.58x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.9% vs. 7.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.79x on $66.61 tangible book, implying $252.67 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $115.00
Analyst Range $110.00 – $120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 120%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $115.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly