AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Pegasystems Inc. as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag PEGA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Pegasystems Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for PEGA comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value PEGA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. PEGA was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from PEGA's most recent reported fundamentals.

PEGA - Pegasystems Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $35.60 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 34.4% below fair value

Current Price $37.36

Bear Case $41.14 10.1% upside ($41.14 - $37.36) / $37.36 = 10.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $56.91 52.3% upside ($56.91 - $37.36) / $37.36 = 52.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $72.96 95.3% upside ($72.96 - $37.36) / $37.36 = 95.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

11.4%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Market is pricing in (growth) 5.5% vs our 11.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $56.91 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (24 analysts) $35.60

Analyst Range $25.00 – $47.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 60%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $35.60 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions