Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. logo PDM - Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.00
CONSENSUS: $10.00
UPSIDE: 21.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.9% below fair value
Current Price $8.20
Bear Case $9.90 20.7% upside ($9.90 - $8.20) / $8.20 = 20.7% $1.15 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $12.59 53.6% upside ($12.59 - $8.20) / $8.20 = 53.6% $1.15 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $15.28 86.4% upside ($15.28 - $8.20) / $8.20 = 86.4% $1.15 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
1.15$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.15) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.59 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.32 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify