Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. logo PDM - Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $11.00
CONSENSUS: $11.00
UPSIDE: 12.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.5% below fair value
Current Price $9.78
Bear Case $10.06 2.8% upside ($10.06 - $9.78) / $9.78 = 2.8% $1.15 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $12.79 30.8% upside ($12.79 - $9.78) / $9.78 = 30.8% $1.15 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $15.53 58.8% upside ($15.53 - $9.78) / $9.78 = 58.8% $1.15 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
1.15$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.15) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.79 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.32 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify