PDM - Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$10.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$11.00
LOW:
$10.00
MEDIAN:
$10.50
CONSENSUS:
$10.50
UPSIDE:
11.58%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.15) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.15 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $13.23 per share. Dividend yield: 5.3%. DDM cross-check: $9.32.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$10.50
Analyst Range
$10.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.32 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify