Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. logo PDM - Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.50
CONSENSUS: $10.50
UPSIDE: 8.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.6% below fair value
Current Price $9.68
Bear Case $10.24 5.8% upside ($10.24 - $9.68) / $9.68 = 5.8% $1.12 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $13.01 34.4% upside ($13.01 - $9.68) / $9.68 = 34.4% $1.12 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $15.79 63.1% upside ($15.79 - $9.68) / $9.68 = 63.1% $1.12 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
1.12$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.12) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.12 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $13.01 per share. Dividend yield: 5.2%. DDM cross-check: $9.32.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $10.50
Analyst Range $10.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $9.32 (28% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify