Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. logo PDM - Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.50
CONSENSUS: $10.50
UPSIDE: 11.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% below fair value
Current Price $9.41
Bear Case $10.40 10.6% upside ($10.40 - $9.41) / $9.41 = 10.6% $1.15 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $13.23 40.6% upside ($13.23 - $9.41) / $9.41 = 40.6% $1.15 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $16.06 70.6% upside ($16.06 - $9.41) / $9.41 = 70.6% $1.15 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
1.15$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.15) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.15 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $13.23 per share. Dividend yield: 5.3%. DDM cross-check: $9.32.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $10.50
Analyst Range $10.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.32 (30% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify