Pacira BioSciences, Inc. logo PCRX - Pacira BioSciences, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 17
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $29.50
CONSENSUS: $29.50
UPSIDE: 26.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.0% below fair value
Current Price $23.35
Bear Case $27.73 18.8% upside ($27.73 - $23.35) / $23.35 = 18.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $37.05 58.7% upside ($37.05 - $23.35) / $23.35 = 58.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $45.84 96.3% upside ($45.84 - $23.35) / $23.35 = 96.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.50 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.05 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 817% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $29.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions