Pacira BioSciences, Inc. logo PCRX - Pacira BioSciences, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 17
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 25.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.6% below fair value
Current Price $25.48
Bear Case $28.29 11.0% upside ($28.29 - $25.48) / $25.48 = 11.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $37.80 48.3% upside ($37.80 - $25.48) / $25.48 = 48.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $46.77 83.5% upside ($46.77 - $25.48) / $25.48 = 83.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 13.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.2% vs our 8.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.80 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 817% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions