PG&E Corporation logo PCG - PG&E Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.33
UPSIDE: 39.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.5% below fair value
Current Price $13.13
Bear Case $16.52 25.8% upside ($16.52 - $13.13) / $13.13 = 25.8% $1.18 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $18.88 43.8% upside ($18.88 - $13.13) / $13.13 = 43.8% $1.18 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $21.24 61.8% upside ($21.24 - $13.13) / $13.13 = 61.8% $1.18 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.18, the base-case value is $18.88 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $18.33
Analyst Range $13.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples