PG&E Corporation logo PCG - PG&E Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $23.00
CONSENSUS: $23.80
UPSIDE: 30.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.5% below fair value
Current Price $18.22
Bear Case $16.52 9.3% downside ($16.52 - $18.22) / $18.22 = -9.3% $1.18 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $18.88 3.6% upside ($18.88 - $18.22) / $18.22 = 3.6% $1.18 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $21.24 16.6% upside ($21.24 - $18.22) / $18.22 = 16.6% $1.18 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.18, the base-case value is $18.88 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $23.80
Analyst Range $21.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples