PG&E Corporation logo PCG - PG&E Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.50
CONSENSUS: $22.67
UPSIDE: 31.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.2% below fair value
Current Price $17.18
Bear Case $21.53 25.3% upside ($21.53 - $17.18) / $17.18 = 25.3% $1.59 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $24.61 43.2% upside ($24.61 - $17.18) / $17.18 = 43.2% $1.59 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $27.69 61.1% upside ($27.69 - $17.18) / $17.18 = 61.1% $1.59 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.67 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.61 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 35%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples