PBA - Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$68.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$68.00
LOW:
$68.00
MEDIAN:
$68.00
CONSENSUS:
$68.00
UPSIDE:
43.07%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.90, the base-case value is $28.52 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$68.00
Analyst Range
$68.00 – $68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Warnings
The company pays out 110% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7148 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples