Pembina Pipeline Corporation logo PBA - Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $68.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $68.00
CONSENSUS: $68.00
UPSIDE: 43.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 66.7% above fair value
Current Price $47.53
Bear Case $22.82 52.0% downside ($22.82 - $47.53) / $47.53 = -52.0% $1.90 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $28.52 40.0% downside ($28.52 - $47.53) / $47.53 = -40.0% $1.90 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $34.22 28.0% downside ($34.22 - $47.53) / $47.53 = -28.0% $1.90 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.90, the base-case value is $28.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $68.00
Analyst Range $68.00 – $68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 58%

Warnings

The company pays out 110% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7148 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples