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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 71.5% below fair value
Current Price $19.11
Bear Case $35.86 87.7% upside ($35.86 - $19.11) / $19.11 = 87.7% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $67.16 251.4% upside ($67.16 - $19.11) / $19.11 = 251.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $108.03 465.3% upside ($108.03 - $19.11) / $19.11 = 465.3% 28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 13.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.16 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0063 USD per JPY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions