Patria Investments Limited logo PAX - Patria Investments Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.00
UPSIDE: 63.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.0% below fair value
Current Price $11.02
Bear Case $11.70 6.1% upside ($11.70 - $11.02) / $11.02 = 6.1% ROTCE 10.5% → 1.42x TBV
Fair Value $16.70 51.6% upside ($16.70 - $11.02) / $11.02 = 51.6% ROTCE 14.0% → 2.19x TBV
Bull Case $21.71 97.0% upside ($21.71 - $11.02) / $11.02 = 97.0% ROTCE 16.1% → 2.65x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.0%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.87x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly