PATH - UiPath Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$15.82
DETAILS
HIGH:
$19.00
LOW:
$13.00
MEDIAN:
$15.00
CONSENSUS:
$15.82
UPSIDE:
44.74%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
High-Growth Software
80% confidence
Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Adjust Assumptions
11.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (11%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
53%
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.82 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.99 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 83% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep