Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. logo PANL - Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 2
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.4% below fair value
Current Price $8.02
Bear Case $6.97 13.1% downside ($6.97 - $8.02) / $8.02 = -13.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.04 37.7% upside ($11.04 - $8.02) / $8.02 = 37.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $15.10 88.3% upside ($15.10 - $8.02) / $8.02 = 88.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 18.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.04 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions