Phibro Animal Health Corporation logo PAHC - Phibro Animal Health Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $49.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $49.00
CONSENSUS: $49.00
UPSIDE: 47.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.5% above fair value
Current Price $33.26
Bear Case $20.44 38.5% downside ($20.44 - $33.26) / $33.26 = -38.5% $1.25 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $23.84 28.3% downside ($23.84 - $33.26) / $33.26 = -28.3% $1.25 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $27.25 18.1% downside ($27.25 - $33.26) / $33.26 = -18.1% $1.25 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
1.25$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.84 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples