Phibro Animal Health Corporation logo PAHC - Phibro Animal Health Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $49.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $28.00
DOWNSIDE: 26.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.5% below fair value
Current Price $38.25
Bear Case $36.21 5.3% downside ($36.21 - $38.25) / $38.25 = -5.3% $2.44 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $42.25 10.4% upside ($42.25 - $38.25) / $38.25 = 10.4% $2.44 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $48.28 26.2% upside ($48.28 - $38.25) / $38.25 = 26.2% $2.44 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.3x
2.44$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.44, the base-case value is $42.25 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $28.00
Analyst Range $17.00 – $49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples