PACS Group, Inc. logo PACS - PACS Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $57.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $52.00
CONSENSUS: $52.25
UPSIDE: 15.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.0% above fair value
Current Price $45.06
Bear Case $16.58 63.2% downside ($16.58 - $45.06) / $45.06 = -63.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $44.62 1.0% downside ($44.62 - $45.06) / $45.06 = -1.0% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $78.21 73.6% upside ($78.21 - $45.06) / $45.06 = 73.6% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 40.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.5% vs our 18.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.25 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.62 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions