Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo PAC - Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $265.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $225.00
MEDIAN: $276.00
CONSENSUS: $265.50
UPSIDE: 18.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.8% below fair value
Current Price $224.67
Bear Case $298.77 33.0% upside ($298.77 - $224.67) / $224.67 = 33.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $657.08 192.5% upside ($657.08 - $224.67) / $224.67 = 192.5% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,150.95 412.3% upside ($1,150.95 - $224.67) / $224.67 = 412.3% 31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

24.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 49%
Implied Market Multiple 23.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.2% vs our 24.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $657.08 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $265.50
Analyst Range $225.00 – $285.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 147%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $265.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 147% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0539 USD per MXN.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions