Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo PAC - Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $285.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $285.00
MEDIAN: $285.00
CONSENSUS: $285.00
UPSIDE: 31.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.1% below fair value
Current Price $216.28
Bear Case $181.23 16.2% downside ($181.23 - $216.28) / $216.28 = -16.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $394.10 82.2% upside ($394.10 - $216.28) / $216.28 = 82.2% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $678.14 213.5% upside ($678.14 - $216.28) / $216.28 = 213.5% 29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

22.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 30.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.6% vs our 22.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $285.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $394.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $285.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0572 USD per MXN.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions