Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo PAC - Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $261.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $225.00
MEDIAN: $275.00
CONSENSUS: $261.67
UPSIDE: 29.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.4% below fair value
Current Price $202.03
Bear Case $303.16 50.1% upside ($303.16 - $202.03) / $202.03 = 50.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $639.71 216.6% upside ($639.71 - $202.03) / $202.03 = 216.6% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,088.78 438.9% upside ($1,088.78 - $202.03) / $202.03 = 438.9% 29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

22.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.9% vs our 22.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $639.71 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $261.67
Analyst Range $225.00 – $285.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 144%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $261.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0589 USD per MXN.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions