PAC - Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$261.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$285.00
LOW:
$225.00
MEDIAN:
$275.00
CONSENSUS:
$261.67
UPSIDE:
29.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
65% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
22.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs our 22.7% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $639.71 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$261.67
Analyst Range
$225.00 – $285.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
144%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $261.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0589 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions