OZK - Bank OZK
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$56.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$61.00
LOW:
$52.00
MEDIAN:
$56.00
CONSENSUS:
$56.33
UPSIDE:
14.49%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
13.1%
9.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.98x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 13.1% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.77x on $50.10 tangible book, implying $88.43 per share. DDM cross-check: $586.46.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$56.33
Analyst Range
$52.00 – $61.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $586.46 (563% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly