Outfront Media Inc. logo OUT - Outfront Media Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
UPSIDE: 12.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.6% below fair value
Current Price $33.21
Bear Case $37.37 12.5% upside ($37.37 - $33.21) / $33.21 = 12.5% $1.76 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $45.88 38.1% upside ($45.88 - $33.21) / $33.21 = 38.1% $1.76 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $54.37 63.7% upside ($54.37 - $33.21) / $33.21 = 63.7% $1.76 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.2x
1.76$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.76) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.88 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify