Outfront Media Inc. logo OUT - Outfront Media Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
UPSIDE: 20.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.6% below fair value
Current Price $31.03
Bear Case $35.77 15.3% upside ($35.77 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 15.3% $1.74 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $43.45 40.0% upside ($43.45 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 40.0% $1.74 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $51.14 64.8% upside ($51.14 - $31.03) / $31.03 = 64.8% $1.74 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.2x
1.74$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.74) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.74 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $43.45 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $33.98.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $37.50
Analyst Range $37.00 – $38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify