Outfront Media Inc. logo OUT - Outfront Media Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.50
UPSIDE: 31.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.8% below fair value
Current Price $28.52
Bear Case $36.02 26.3% upside ($36.02 - $28.52) / $28.52 = 26.3% $1.76 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $43.77 53.4% upside ($43.77 - $28.52) / $28.52 = 53.4% $1.76 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $51.52 80.6% upside ($51.52 - $28.52) / $28.52 = 80.6% $1.76 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.2x
1.76$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.76) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.76 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $43.77 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $33.98.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $37.50
Analyst Range $37.00 – $38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 17%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify