Old Republic International Corporation logo ORI - Old Republic International Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 0
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $42.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $42.00
CONSENSUS: $42.00
UPSIDE: 6.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.1% below fair value
Current Price $39.35
Bear Case $45.99 16.9% upside ($45.99 - $39.35) / $39.35 = 16.9% ROTCE 13.3% → 2.32x TBV
Fair Value $67.91 72.6% upside ($67.91 - $39.35) / $39.35 = 72.6% ROTCE 17.7% → 3.43x TBV
Bull Case $79.13 101.1% upside ($79.13 - $39.35) / $39.35 = 101.1% ROTCE 20.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.7%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.82x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.91 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 77% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly