Organogenesis Holdings Inc. logo ORGO - Organogenesis Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $5.00
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.67
UPSIDE: 150.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.8% below fair value
Current Price $2.66
Bear Case $2.84 6.6% upside ($2.84 - $2.66) / $2.66 = 6.6% $0.16 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $3.32 24.7% upside ($3.32 - $2.66) / $2.66 = 24.7% $0.16 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $3.79 42.3% upside ($3.79 - $2.66) / $2.66 = 42.3% $0.16 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
0.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.67 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.32 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $6.67 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples