Organogenesis Holdings Inc. logo ORGO - Organogenesis Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.00
LOW: $3.00
MEDIAN: $3.00
CONSENSUS: $3.00
UPSIDE: 25.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.1% below fair value
Current Price $2.40
Bear Case $2.21 8.0% downside ($2.21 - $2.40) / $2.40 = -8.0% $0.16 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $2.58 7.7% upside ($2.58 - $2.40) / $2.40 = 7.7% $0.16 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $2.95 22.9% upside ($2.95 - $2.40) / $2.40 = 22.9% $0.16 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
0.16$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.58 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples