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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.6% above fair value
Current Price $18.75
Bear Case $9.96 46.9% downside ($9.96 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -46.9% $0.83 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.45 33.6% downside ($12.45 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -33.6% $0.83 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $14.94 20.3% downside ($14.94 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -20.3% $0.83 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.83$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.83, the base-case value is $12.45 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 421%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 786% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1372 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples