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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.50
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $21.25
CONSENSUS: $21.25
UPSIDE: 18.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 66.1% below fair value
Current Price $17.89
Bear Case $31.31 75.0% upside ($31.31 - $17.89) / $17.89 = 75.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $52.82 195.3% upside ($52.82 - $17.89) / $17.89 = 195.3% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $78.65 339.6% upside ($78.65 - $17.89) / $17.89 = 339.6% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 12.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.7% vs our 18.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $52.82 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $21.25
Analyst Range $21.00 – $21.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 149%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $21.25 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 149% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions