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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.50
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $21.25
CONSENSUS: $21.25
UPSIDE: 14.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.1% below fair value
Current Price $18.48
Bear Case $27.46 48.6% upside ($27.46 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 48.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $46.32 150.7% upside ($46.32 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 150.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $68.97 273.2% upside ($68.97 - $18.48) / $18.48 = 273.2% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 13.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.3% vs our 18.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.25 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.32 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $21.25 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 147% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions