Option Care Health, Inc. logo OPCH - Option Care Health, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $32.38
UPSIDE: 54.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.1% below fair value
Current Price $20.93
Bear Case $20.70 1.1% downside ($20.70 - $20.93) / $20.93 = -1.1% $1.28 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $25.87 23.6% upside ($25.87 - $20.93) / $20.93 = 23.6% $1.28 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $31.04 48.3% upside ($31.04 - $20.93) / $20.93 = 48.3% $1.28 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.9x
1.28$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.38 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.87 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $32.38 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples