Option Care Health, Inc. logo OPCH - Option Care Health, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.05
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $32.02
CONSENSUS: $28.78
DOWNSIDE: 7.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.8% above fair value
Current Price $31.21
Bear Case $19.24 38.4% downside ($19.24 - $31.21) / $31.21 = -38.4% $1.27 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $24.05 22.9% downside ($24.05 - $31.21) / $31.21 = -22.9% $1.27 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $28.86 7.5% downside ($28.86 - $31.21) / $31.21 = -7.5% $1.27 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.9x
1.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.27, the base-case value is $24.05 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $28.78
Analyst Range $22.00 – $32.05
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples