Ooma, Inc. logo OOMA - Ooma, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $23.67
UPSIDE: 14.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 74.0% above fair value
Current Price $20.67
Bear Case $7.47 63.9% downside ($7.47 - $20.67) / $20.67 = -63.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.88 42.5% downside ($11.88 - $20.67) / $20.67 = -42.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $16.44 20.5% downside ($16.44 - $20.67) / $20.67 = -20.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 56.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.9% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.88 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions