Ooma, Inc. logo OOMA - Ooma, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.40
UPSIDE: 28.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 149.1% above fair value
Current Price $19.72
Bear Case $4.97 74.8% downside ($4.97 - $19.72) / $19.72 = -74.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $7.92 59.9% downside ($7.92 - $19.72) / $19.72 = -59.9% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $10.95 44.5% downside ($10.95 - $19.72) / $19.72 = -44.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 54.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.4% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.92 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $25.40
Analyst Range $24.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 69%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $25.40 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions