Ooma, Inc. logo OOMA - Ooma, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $25.00
UPSIDE: 6.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 194.0% above fair value
Current Price $23.38
Bear Case $5.00 78.6% downside ($5.00 - $23.38) / $23.38 = -78.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $7.95 66.0% downside ($7.95 - $23.38) / $23.38 = -66.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $11.00 53.0% downside ($11.00 - $23.38) / $23.38 = -53.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 63.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 24.4% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.95 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $25.00
Analyst Range $24.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions