Onity Group Inc. logo ONIT - Onity Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 30.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 83.9% below fair value
Current Price $38.34
Bear Case $145.45 279.4% upside ($145.45 - $38.34) / $38.34 = 279.4% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.95x TBV
Fair Value $237.95 520.6% upside ($237.95 - $38.34) / $38.34 = 520.6% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.20x TBV
Bull Case $236.36 516.5% upside ($236.36 - $38.34) / $38.34 = 516.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.17x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.2%
12.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.2% vs. 12.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.20x on $74.48 tangible book, implying $237.95 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly