Onity Group Inc. logo ONIT - Onity Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $60.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $60.00
UPSIDE: 74.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 84.3% below fair value
Current Price $34.37
Bear Case $133.94 289.7% upside ($133.94 - $34.37) / $34.37 = 289.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.80x TBV
Fair Value $219.13 537.5% upside ($219.13 - $34.37) / $34.37 = 537.5% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.94x TBV
Bull Case $217.66 533.3% upside ($217.66 - $34.37) / $34.37 = 533.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.92x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.2%
12.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.46x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.2% vs. 12.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.94x on $74.48 tangible book, implying $219.13 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly