Old National Bancorp logo ONB - Old National Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 10
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $29.50
UPSIDE: 9.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.3% above fair value
Current Price $26.89
Bear Case $18.39 31.6% downside ($18.39 - $26.89) / $26.89 = -31.6% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.02x TBV
Fair Value $26.27 2.3% downside ($26.27 - $26.89) / $26.89 = -2.3% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.64x TBV
Bull Case $34.16 27.0% upside ($34.16 - $26.89) / $26.89 = 27.0% ROTCE 13.8% → 2.01x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.86x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.50 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.27 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $6.72 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly