AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Old National Bancorp as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ONB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Old National Bancorp's fair value?

Fair value for ONB comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ONB?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ONB was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from ONB's most recent reported fundamentals.

ONB - Old National Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $29.86 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 1.8% above fair value

Current Price $25.66

Bear Case $17.64 31.3% downside ($17.64 - $25.66) / $25.66 = -31.3% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.02x TBV

Fair Value $25.20 1.8% downside ($25.20 - $25.66) / $25.66 = -1.8% ROTCE 12.0% → 1.64x TBV

Bull Case $32.76 27.7% upside ($32.76 - $25.66) / $25.66 = 27.7% ROTCE 13.8% → 2.01x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

12.0%

Cost of Equity

8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.76x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.0% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.64x on $14.60 tangible book, implying $25.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $6.94.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $29.86

Analyst Range $27.00 – $32.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $6.94 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly