ONB - Old National Bancorp
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$29.17
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$25.00
MEDIAN:
$29.50
CONSENSUS:
$29.17
UPSIDE:
11.29%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
12.0%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.81x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.17 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.19 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.72 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly