OneMain Holdings, Inc. logo OMF - OneMain Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $76.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $69.17
UPSIDE: 12.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 86.1% below fair value
Current Price $61.25
Bear Case $242.54 296.0% upside ($242.54 - $61.25) / $61.25 = 296.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $440.27 618.8% upside ($440.27 - $61.25) / $61.25 = 618.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $655.39 970.0% upside ($655.39 - $61.25) / $61.25 = 970.0% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 9.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.8% vs our 14.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.17 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $440.27 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $69.17 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 766% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions