Omnicell, Inc. logo OMCL - Omnicell, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $57.50
CONSENSUS: $57.50
UPSIDE: 68.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 425.6% above fair value
Current Price $34.22
Bear Case $5.21 84.8% downside ($5.21 - $34.22) / $34.22 = -84.8% $0.52 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $6.51 81.0% downside ($6.51 - $34.22) / $34.22 = -81.0% $0.52 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $7.81 77.2% downside ($7.81 - $34.22) / $34.22 = -77.2% $0.52 × 15x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.5x
0.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 65.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $6.51 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $57.50
Analyst Range $50.00 – $65.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 89%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1076%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples