Olaplex Holdings, Inc. logo OLPX - Olaplex Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $2.50
LOW: $1.40
MEDIAN: $2.00
CONSENSUS: $1.89
DOWNSIDE: 8.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.5% below fair value
Current Price $2.07
Bear Case $2.57 24.2% upside ($2.57 - $2.07) / $2.07 = 24.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $2.57 24.2% upside ($2.57 - $2.07) / $2.07 = 24.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $2.74 32.3% upside ($2.74 - $2.07) / $2.07 = 32.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.0% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1.89 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.57 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1.89 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions