One Liberty Properties, Inc. logo OLP - One Liberty Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
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BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.7% below fair value
Current Price $23.38
Bear Case $39.31 68.2% upside ($39.31 - $23.38) / $23.38 = 68.2% $2.41 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $47.41 102.8% upside ($47.41 - $23.38) / $23.38 = 102.8% $2.41 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $55.51 137.5% upside ($55.51 - $23.38) / $23.38 = 137.5% $2.41 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
2.41$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.41) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.41 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $47.41 per share. Dividend yield: 7.7%. DDM cross-check: $33.55.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $33.55 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify