Okta, Inc. logo OKTA - Okta, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 37
HOLD 12
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $123.47 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $123.47
DOWNSIDE: 10.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.5% above fair value
Current Price $138.63
Bear Case $100.29 27.7% downside ($100.29 - $138.63) / $138.63 = -27.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $135.25 2.4% downside ($135.25 - $138.63) / $138.63 = -2.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $170.68 23.1% upside ($170.68 - $138.63) / $138.63 = 23.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.9% vs our 11.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.47 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $135.25 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions