Okta, Inc. logo OKTA - Okta, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 36
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $104.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $134.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $106.50
CONSENSUS: $104.50
UPSIDE: 11.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.2% below fair value
Current Price $93.87
Bear Case $94.56 0.7% upside ($94.56 - $93.87) / $93.87 = 0.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $127.17 35.5% upside ($127.17 - $93.87) / $93.87 = 35.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $160.13 70.6% upside ($160.13 - $93.87) / $93.87 = 70.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $104.50 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $127.17 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $104.50 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions