Oklo Inc. logo OKLO - Oklo Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $130.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $89.00
CONSENSUS: $91.50
UPSIDE: 59.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 206.4% above fair value
Current Price $57.19
Bear Case $12.58 78.0% downside ($12.58 - $57.19) / $57.19 = -78.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $18.67 67.4% downside ($18.67 - $57.19) / $57.19 = -67.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $24.76 56.7% downside ($24.76 - $57.19) / $57.19 = -56.7% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 931.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.67 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $91.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case