OKE - ONEOK, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$99.73
DETAILS
HIGH:
$112.00
LOW:
$88.00
MEDIAN:
$98.00
CONSENSUS:
$99.73
UPSIDE:
8.00%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
5.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.42, the base-case value is $121.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $83.50.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$99.73
Analyst Range
$88.00 – $112.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $83.50 (below our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples