ONEOK, Inc. logo OKE - ONEOK, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 21
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $104.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $91.00
CONSENSUS: $92.50
UPSIDE: 1.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.0% below fair value
Current Price $91.38
Bear Case $94.96 3.9% upside ($94.96 - $91.38) / $91.38 = 3.9% $5.78 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $118.71 29.9% upside ($118.71 - $91.38) / $91.38 = 29.9% $5.78 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $142.45 55.9% upside ($142.45 - $91.38) / $91.38 = 55.9% $5.78 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
5.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.50 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.71 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $76.04 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.50 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples