ONEOK, Inc. logo OKE - ONEOK, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 22
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $88.00
MEDIAN: $98.00
CONSENSUS: $99.73
UPSIDE: 8.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.3% below fair value
Current Price $92.34
Bear Case $97.56 5.7% upside ($97.56 - $92.34) / $92.34 = 5.7% $5.42 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $121.95 32.1% upside ($121.95 - $92.34) / $92.34 = 32.1% $5.42 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $146.34 58.5% upside ($146.34 - $92.34) / $92.34 = 58.5% $5.42 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
5.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.42, the base-case value is $121.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $83.50.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (39 analysts) $99.73
Analyst Range $88.00 – $112.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $83.50 (below our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples