Oceaneering International, Inc. logo OII - Oceaneering International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 27
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.00
UPSIDE: 5.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.5% above fair value
Current Price $44.64
Bear Case $14.09 68.4% downside ($14.09 - $44.64) / $44.64 = -68.4% FCF $120M × 10x
Fair Value $22.27 50.1% downside ($22.27 - $44.64) / $44.64 = -50.1% FCF $155M × 13x
Bull Case $32.54 27.1% downside ($32.54 - $44.64) / $44.64 = -27.1% FCF $190M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $22.27 per share. Range: $14.09 (bear) to $32.54 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (44 analysts) $47.00
Analyst Range $47.00 – $47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential