Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. logo OHI - Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.57
UPSIDE: 7.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.0% below fair value
Current Price $46.95
Bear Case $48.89 4.1% upside ($48.89 - $46.95) / $46.95 = 4.1% $3.06 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $61.77 31.6% upside ($61.77 - $46.95) / $46.95 = 31.6% $3.06 FFO × 23x
Bull Case $74.66 59.0% upside ($74.66 - $46.95) / $46.95 = 59.0% $3.06 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

23.4x
3.06$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.06) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.06 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $61.77 per share. Dividend yield: 5.7%. DDM cross-check: $38.81.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $50.57
Analyst Range $47.00 – $56.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $38.81 (37% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify