OHI - Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$50.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$56.00
LOW:
$46.00
MEDIAN:
$50.00
CONSENSUS:
$50.25
UPSIDE:
13.15%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
23.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.06) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Plain-Language Summary
At $3.06 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $61.77 per share. Dividend yield: 6.1%. DDM cross-check: $38.81.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$50.25
Analyst Range
$46.00 – $56.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $38.81 (37% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify