Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. logo OHI - Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 19
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $50.13
UPSIDE: 4.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.2% below fair value
Current Price $47.90
Bear Case $48.88 2.0% upside ($48.88 - $47.90) / $47.90 = 2.0% $3.07 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $61.53 28.5% upside ($61.53 - $47.90) / $47.90 = 28.5% $3.07 FFO × 23x
Bull Case $74.19 54.9% upside ($74.19 - $47.90) / $47.90 = 54.9% $3.07 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

23.4x
3.07$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.07) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.13 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.53 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.13 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify