AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies ONE Gas, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag OGS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is ONE Gas, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for OGS comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value OGS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. OGS was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from OGS's most recent reported fundamentals.

OGS - ONE Gas, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $88.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 15.0% above fair value

Current Price $80.41

Bear Case $61.18 23.9% downside ($61.18 - $80.41) / $80.41 = -23.9% $4.37 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $69.92 13.0% downside ($69.92 - $80.41) / $80.41 = -13.0% $4.37 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $78.66 2.2% downside ($78.66 - $80.41) / $80.41 = -2.2% $4.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

4.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 18.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.37, the base-case value is $69.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.08.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $88.33

Analyst Range $80.00 – $96.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $47.08 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples