AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes ONE Gas, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag OGS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is ONE Gas, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for OGS is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value OGS?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from OGS's most recent reported fundamentals.

OGS - ONE Gas, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $87.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 4.8% above fair value

Current Price $81.73

Bear Case $68.24 16.5% downside ($68.24 - $81.73) / $81.73 = -16.5% $4.68 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $77.99 4.6% downside ($77.99 - $81.73) / $81.73 = -4.6% $4.68 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $87.74 7.3% upside ($87.74 - $81.73) / $81.73 = 7.3% $4.68 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

4.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.99 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $49.22 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples