Oil-Dri Corporation of America logo ODC - Oil-Dri Corporation of America

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.2% above fair value
Current Price $74.01
Bear Case $54.01 27.0% downside ($54.01 - $74.01) / $74.01 = -27.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $72.40 2.2% downside ($72.40 - $74.01) / $74.01 = -2.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $90.51 22.3% upside ($90.51 - $74.01) / $74.01 = 22.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.4% vs our 10.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $72.40 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions