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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.7% above fair value
Current Price $87.90
Bear Case $55.47 36.9% downside ($55.47 - $87.90) / $87.90 = -36.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $77.99 11.3% downside ($77.99 - $87.90) / $87.90 = -11.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $100.90 14.8% upside ($100.90 - $87.90) / $87.90 = 14.8% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 26.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.0% vs our 11.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $77.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions