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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.4% above fair value
Current Price $74.85
Bear Case $53.03 29.2% downside ($53.03 - $74.85) / $74.85 = -29.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $74.57 0.4% downside ($74.57 - $74.85) / $74.85 = -0.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $96.48 28.9% upside ($96.48 - $74.85) / $74.85 = 28.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 24.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.57 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions