Owens Corning logo OC - Owens Corning

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 25
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $152.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $188.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $151.50
CONSENSUS: $152.67
UPSIDE: 6.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.8% below fair value
Current Price $143.35
Bear Case $107.05 25.3% downside ($107.05 - $143.35) / $143.35 = -25.3% $9.54 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $145.97 1.8% upside ($145.97 - $143.35) / $143.35 = 1.8% $9.54 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $184.90 29.0% upside ($184.90 - $143.35) / $143.35 = 29.0% $9.54 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
9.54$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.54)

Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $152.67 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $145.97 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing