Owens Corning logo OC - Owens Corning

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 26
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $160.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $141.00
CONSENSUS: $141.00
UPSIDE: 20.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.6% below fair value
Current Price $117.42
Bear Case $104.48 11.0% downside ($104.48 - $117.42) / $117.42 = -11.0% $9.54 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $142.47 21.3% upside ($142.47 - $117.42) / $117.42 = 21.3% $9.54 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $180.46 53.7% upside ($180.46 - $117.42) / $117.42 = 53.7% $9.54 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
9.54$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.54)

Implied Market Multiple 12.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $142.47 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing