AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Owens Corning as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag OC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Owens Corning's fair value?

Fair value for OC comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value OC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. OC was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from OC's most recent reported fundamentals.

OC - Owens Corning

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $178.14 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 14.5% below fair value

Current Price $146.75

Bear Case $133.56 9.0% downside ($133.56 - $146.75) / $146.75 = -9.0% $9.54 × 14x

Fair Value $171.72 17.0% upside ($171.72 - $146.75) / $146.75 = 17.0% $9.54 × 18x

Bull Case $209.88 43.0% upside ($209.88 - $146.75) / $146.75 = 43.0% $9.54 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

9.54$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.54)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $9.54 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $171.72 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $178.14

Analyst Range $159.00 – $198.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing