AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Orange County Bancorp, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag OBT as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for OBT comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value OBT?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. OBT was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from OBT's most recent reported fundamentals.

OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $44.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 56.1% below fair value

Current Price $36.45

Bear Case $56.06 53.8% upside ($56.06 - $36.45) / $36.45 = 53.8% ROTCE 11.2% → 2.70x TBV

Fair Value $83.08 127.9% upside ($83.08 - $36.45) / $36.45 = 127.9% ROTCE 14.9% → 4.00x TBV

Bull Case $83.08 127.9% upside ($83.08 - $36.45) / $36.45 = 127.9% ROTCE 17.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

14.9%

Cost of Equity

6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.76x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.9% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $20.77 tangible book, implying $83.08 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly