Orange County Bancorp, Inc. logo OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $36.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.6% below fair value
Current Price $36.92
Bear Case $57.12 54.7% upside ($57.12 - $36.92) / $36.92 = 54.7% ROTCE 11.2% → 2.75x TBV
Fair Value $83.08 125.0% upside ($83.08 - $36.92) / $36.92 = 125.0% ROTCE 14.9% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $83.08 125.0% upside ($83.08 - $36.92) / $36.92 = 125.0% ROTCE 17.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.9%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.78x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.9% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $20.77 tangible book, implying $83.08 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly