Orange County Bancorp, Inc. logo OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $36.00
UPSIDE: 5.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 58.8% below fair value
Current Price $34.05
Bear Case $54.49 60.0% upside ($54.49 - $34.05) / $34.05 = 60.0% ROTCE 11.2% → 2.62x TBV
Fair Value $82.73 143.0% upside ($82.73 - $34.05) / $34.05 = 143.0% ROTCE 14.9% → 3.98x TBV
Bull Case $83.08 144.0% upside ($83.08 - $34.05) / $34.05 = 144.0% ROTCE 17.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.9%
6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.64x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.9% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.98x on $20.77 tangible book, implying $82.73 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly