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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $84.00
UPSIDE: 31.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.0% below fair value
Current Price $64.00
Bear Case $53.31 16.7% downside ($53.31 - $64.00) / $64.00 = -16.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $71.14 11.2% upside ($71.14 - $64.00) / $64.00 = 11.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $88.80 38.8% upside ($88.80 - $64.00) / $64.00 = 38.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.8% vs our 10.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $71.14 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $84.00
Analyst Range $63.00 – $95.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions