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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $83.00
UPSIDE: 26.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.8% above fair value
Current Price $65.64
Bear Case $50.64 22.8% downside ($50.64 - $65.64) / $65.64 = -22.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $65.13 0.8% downside ($65.13 - $65.64) / $65.64 = -0.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $79.01 20.4% upside ($79.01 - $65.64) / $65.64 = 20.4% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.2% vs our 9.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $65.13 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $83.00
Analyst Range $63.00 – $95.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions