AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag NXRT as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for NXRT comes from a P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value NXRT?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. NXRT was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple, built from NXRT's most recent reported fundamentals.

NXRT - NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $20.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 80.1% below fair value

Current Price $18.68

Bear Case $79.55 325.8% upside ($79.55 - $18.68) / $18.68 = 325.8% $2.49 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $93.89 402.6% upside ($93.89 - $18.68) / $18.68 = 402.6% $2.49 FFO × 19x

Bull Case $108.24 479.4% upside ($108.24 - $18.68) / $18.68 = 479.4% $2.49 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

2.49$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.49) × residential P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 7.5x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.49 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $93.89 per share. Dividend yield: 11.3%. DDM cross-check: $202.40.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $20.50

Analyst Range $18.00 – $23.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 358%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 11.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $202.40 (116% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $20.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 358% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

⚠ This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify