AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag NXRT as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for NXRT is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value NXRT?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from NXRT's most recent reported fundamentals.

NXRT - NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 73.8% below fair value

Current Price $26.87

Bear Case $86.89 223.4% upside ($86.89 - $26.87) / $26.87 = 223.4% $2.51 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $102.48 281.4% upside ($102.48 - $26.87) / $26.87 = 281.4% $2.51 FFO × 19x

Bull Case $118.08 339.4% upside ($118.08 - $26.87) / $26.87 = 339.4% $2.51 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

2.51$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.51) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.48 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 7.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $294.02 (142% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 368% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify