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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $29.40
MEDIAN: $32.20
CONSENSUS: $32.20
UPSIDE: 3.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.5% above fair value
Current Price $30.97
Bear Case $12.36 60.1% downside ($12.36 - $30.97) / $30.97 = -60.1% $1.03 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $15.45 50.1% downside ($15.45 - $30.97) / $30.97 = -50.1% $1.03 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $18.54 40.1% downside ($18.54 - $30.97) / $30.97 = -40.1% $1.03 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.03, the base-case value is $15.45 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $32.20
Analyst Range $29.40 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $32.20 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples