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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.70 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $29.40
MEDIAN: $31.70
CONSENSUS: $31.70
UPSIDE: 22.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.8% below fair value
Current Price $25.89
Bear Case $37.54 45.0% upside ($37.54 - $25.89) / $25.89 = 45.0% $2.31 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $46.93 81.3% upside ($46.93 - $25.89) / $25.89 = 81.3% $2.31 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $56.32 117.5% upside ($56.32 - $25.89) / $25.89 = 117.5% $2.31 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
2.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.70 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.93 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $31.70 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples