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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 9
SELL 3
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.0% above fair value
Current Price $29.68
Bear Case $15.83 46.7% downside ($15.83 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -46.7% $1.06 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $19.79 33.3% downside ($19.79 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -33.3% $1.06 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $23.75 20.0% downside ($23.75 - $29.68) / $29.68 = -20.0% $1.06 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.7x
1.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.06, the base-case value is $19.79 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 31%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples