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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 9
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 116.6% above fair value
Current Price $33.47
Bear Case $12.36 63.1% downside ($12.36 - $33.47) / $33.47 = -63.1% $1.03 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $15.45 53.8% downside ($15.45 - $33.47) / $33.47 = -53.8% $1.03 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $18.54 44.6% downside ($18.54 - $33.47) / $33.47 = -44.6% $1.03 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.03, the base-case value is $15.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples