Newell Brands Inc. logo NWL - Newell Brands Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 13
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.15 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $3.50
MEDIAN: $4.25
CONSENSUS: $5.15
UPSIDE: 0.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.2% below fair value
Current Price $5.14
Bear Case $14.19 176.0% upside ($14.19 - $5.14) / $5.14 = 176.0% $1.25 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $17.23 235.1% upside ($17.23 - $5.14) / $5.14 = 235.1% $1.25 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $20.26 294.3% upside ($20.26 - $5.14) / $5.14 = 294.3% $1.25 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.25$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.15 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.23 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.15 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 313% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples