Navitas Semiconductor Corp logo NVTS - Navitas Semiconductor Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.23 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $13.70
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $18.23
UPSIDE: 35.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.7% above fair value
Current Price $13.47
Bear Case $4.47 66.8% downside ($4.47 - $13.47) / $13.47 = -66.8% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $6.71 50.2% downside ($6.71 - $13.47) / $13.47 = -50.2% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $8.93 33.7% downside ($8.93 - $13.47) / $13.47 = -33.7% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 26.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.23 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.71 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.23 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case