Navitas Semiconductor Corporation logo NVTS - Navitas Semiconductor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.23 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $13.70
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $18.23
DOWNSIDE: 37.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 166.7% above fair value
Current Price $29.25
Bear Case $8.52 70.9% downside ($8.52 - $29.25) / $29.25 = -70.9% $0.51 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $10.97 62.5% downside ($10.97 - $29.25) / $29.25 = -62.5% $0.51 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $13.41 54.2% downside ($13.41 - $29.25) / $29.25 = -54.2% $0.51 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.51$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.51)

Implied Market Multiple 57.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.23 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.97 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 30.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.23 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing